書評 「The Goal」 おまけ 「トラブルの渋滞」

「The Goal」はアメリカで 1984 年に出版されたビジネス書だ。

ネットで調べる限りは凄い本のようだ。

アメリカで初版が発行されるとたちまちベストセラーになったとの事。しかし、その後 15 年以上日本では出版されなかった。ダイヤモンド社 書籍オンラインによると、「日本で出版されると世界経済が破滅してしまう」と言って著者が拒否したらしい。そして 2001 年にようやく日本語版が出版されると、日本でもたちまちベストセラーになったそうだ。

普段はネットのニュースや新しい物ばかりに目がいってしまうのだが、たまには時代の検証を経た古典の名著も読んでみようと思い購入した。(古典というには新しすぎるかもしれないが。) kindle で電子書籍版が出ていたのもでかい。

本は物語ベースとなっている。ライバル社におされて危機に貧している工場のマネージャーが部下とともに経営を立て直していくストーリーだ。物語の中では具体的に何の工場かの表現は無かったが、何となく自動車工場に思えた。おそらく、ライバルは日本の会社をイメージしているだろう。初版が 1984 年という事なので多分間違い無いと思う。時はまさにバブル前夜。当時の事はよくわからないが日米の貿易摩擦が一番激しかった頃では無いだろうか?

さて、今回は崇高な目的で勉強しようと思い読んでみたのだが、正直なところ期待はずれだった。

本 1 冊をかけて言っている内容は結局以下の 4 点。

  • 企業の目標は利益を上げる事。だから、施策の効果測定は「最終的な利益に繋がるかどうか」で行うべき
  • 問題を解決する時はボトルネックを見つけて、その部分を解消しなくては行けない。ボトルネックをを解消するために、それ以外の所が多少効率悪くなっても良い。
  • ボトルネックの改善を行っていくと、問題のボトルネックが次の場所に移動するかもしれないので注意
  • 全てが計画通りに行くとは限らないので、「予定外」を吸収するための遊びを随所に入れておけ。最適化しすぎてこの遊びを殺さないように注意

この 4 点は 1984 年当時は斬新なアイディアだったのだろうか?俺には当たり前過ぎて、「どこで伏線が回収されるんだろう?」と逆に疑ってしまったじゃないか。こんな事、IT エンジニアだったら誰でもやってるよ。多分、他の分野でも当たり前じゃないのかな?

たったこれだけの事を言うために数百ページをかけている。「時間という検証を経て名著と判定されたこの本なら、どこかで何か凄い事が書いてあるかもしれない」と思い頑張って最後まで読んだが、肩透かしをくらった気分だ。

ところで、この記事を書いていて「渋滞学」について少し勉強した事を思い出した。

「ボトルネックを解消しろ、遊びを残しておけ」というのは、まさに渋滞を発生させないための方法だ。残念な事にこの本はそこで終わってい待ったが、渋滞学ではその逆の研究もしている。つまり、「渋滞を意図的に発生させるにはどうしたら良いか?」である。

例えば、山に植林する場合。等間隔に木を植えるより、木が密集している部分とまばらな部分を作った方が山火事の延焼速度が遅くなる。木がまばらな所で延焼の渋滞を起こすのだ。

このアイディアをビジネスに応用して、「トラブルによる被害を抑制するため、トラブルを渋滞させる事はできるか?」を考えてみる。

おお、俺、良くやってるじゃん。例えばプログラムを作るとき、要所でサニタイズ(途中経過のチェック)を入れ、問題がある時、疑わしい時はエラーにする。最悪、クラッシュさせても良い。非エンジニアの皆さんは、例えばネットで何かを購入する事を想定してほしい。システムに何か問題があった時、「画面が乱れたけど最後まで進み、金を払ったが結局商品が届かない」より、「エラー画面が出て購入が最後まで勧めない」方がよっぽど良いだろう。

あれは「トラブルの連鎖を防ぐため、意図的にトラブルの渋滞を作っている」とも考えられるだろうか?いや、ちょっと違う気もするな。トラブルの被害を最小限に抑えているのは確かだが、「渋滞」とは少し違うような。。。

じゃあ、時々有名人や問題起こした企業がやってる、炎上の火消しは?

ネット上のヤバイ書き込みを無かった事にしたり、SNS の拡散を抑制したりするやつ。こっちの方が「渋滞」をいう言葉にはマッチする気がする。伝達速度を抑制している分けだからね。でも、良い印象はしないし、成功率があまり高くなさそうな印象。火消しに成功した事例には気づかず、失敗した事例だけ目にするせいでバイアスがかかっているのかもしれないが。いずれにせよ、自分は関わりたくない。

じゃあ、全く新しいアイディアはどうだろう?う〜ん、ゼロから思いつくのは難しい。。。

我ながら発想のスタートとしては独創的で悪くない気がするが、良いアイディアが思い浮かばない。でもまあ、新しいインスピレーションの卵を得たという事で良しとするか。

Author: wbcchsyn

未来のスーパーエンジニア とりあえず、新しい物が大好き

106 thoughts on “書評 「The Goal」 おまけ 「トラブルの渋滞」”

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